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would have been none of that activity； there would have been no life； there would have been nothing。
Once admit that human life can be guided by reason； and all possibility of life is annihilated。
Chapter 2
IF ONE ADMITS； as historians do； that great men lead humanity to the attainment of certain ends； such as the aggrandisement of Russia or of France； or the balance of power； or the diffusion of the ideas of the revolution； or of general progress； or anything else you like； it becomes impossible to explain the phenomena of history apart from the conceptions of chance and genius。
If the object of the European wars of the beginning of this century had been the aggrandisement of Russia； that object might have been attained without any of the preceding wars； and without invasion of foreign territory。
If the object were the aggrandisement of France； that aim might have been attained apart from the revolution and the empire。 If the object were the diffusion of ideas； the printing of books would have attained that object much more effectually than soldiers。 If the object were the progress of civilisation； one may very readily assume that there are other more effectual means of diffusing civilisation than the slaughter of men and the destruction of their property。
Why did it come to pass in this way and no other？ Because it happened so。 ‘‘Chance created the position； genius took advantage of it；’’ says history。
But what is chance？ What is genius？
The words chance and genius mean nothing actually existing； and so cannot be defined。 These words merely denote a certain stage in the comprehension of phenomena。 I do not know how some phenomenon is brought about； I believe that I cannot know； consequently I do not want to know and talk of chance。 I see a force producing an effect out of proportion with the average effect of human powers； I do not understand how this is brought about； and I talk about genius。
To a flock of sheep the sheep who is every evening driven by the shepherd into a special pen to feed； and becomes twice as fat as the rest； must seem to be a genius。 And the circumstance that every evening that sheep does not come into the common fold； but into a special pen full of oats； and that that same sheep grows fat and is killed for mutton； must present itself to the minds of the other sheep as a singular conjunction of genius with a whole series of exceptional chances。
But the sheep need only cease to assume that all that is done to them is with a view to the attainment of their sheepish ends； they need only admit that the events that occur to them may have ends beyond their ken； and they will at once see a unity and a coherence in what happens with the fatted sheep。 Even though they will not know for what end he is fattened； at least they will know that all what happens to him does not happen by chance； and they will have no need to resort to the conception of chance； nor to the conception of genius。
It is only by renouncing all claims to knowledge of an immediate comprehensible aim； and acknowledging the final aim to be beyond our ken； that we see a consistent whole in the life of historical persons。 The cause is then revealed to us of that effect produced by them out of proportion with the common powers of humanity； and we have no need of the words chance and genius。
We have only to admit that the object of the convulsions of the European nations is beyond our knowledge； and that we know only the facts； consisting mainly of murders committed at first in France； then in Italy； then in Africa； in Prussia； in Austria； in Spain； and in Russia； and that the movements from west to east and from east to west constitute the essence and end of those events； and we shall not need to see something exceptional—genius—in the characters of Napoleon and of Alexander； and shall indeed be unable to conceive of those persons as being in any way different from everybody else。 And far from having to explain as chance those petty events； which made those men what they were； it will be clear to us that all those petty details were inevitable。
When we give up all claim to a knowledge of the final end； we shall clearly perceive that just as we cannot invent any flower or seed more truly appropriate to a plant than those it produces； so we cannot imagine any two persons； with all their past in such complete congruity down to the smallest details； with the part they were destined to play。
Chapter 3
THE UNDERLYING ESSENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE of the European events at the beginning of the present century is the military movement of masses of European peoples from west to east； and again from east to west。 The original movement was that from west to east。 That the peoples of the west might be able to accomplish the military march upon Moscow； which they did accomplish； it was essential （1） that they should be combined in a military group of such a magnitude as to be able to withstand the resistance of the military group of the east； （2） that they should have renounced all their established traditions and habits； and （3） that they should have at their head a man able to justify in his own name and theirs the perpetration of all the deception； robbery； and murder that accompany that movement。
And to start from the French Revolution； that old group of insufficient magnitude is broken up； the old habits and traditions are destroyed； step by step a group is elaborated of new dimensions； new habits； and new traditions； and the man is prepared； who is to stand at the head of the coming movement； and to take upon himself the whole responsibility of what has to be done。
A man of no convictions； no habits； no traditions； no name； not even a Frenchman； by the strangest freaks of chance； as it seems； rises above the seething parties of France； and without attaching himself to any one of them； advances to a prominent position。
The incompetence of his colleagues； the weakness and insignificance of his opponents； the frankness of the deception； and the dazzling and self…confident limitation of the man raise him to the head of the army。 The brilliant personal qualities of the soldiers of the Italian army； the disinclination to fight of his opponents； and his childish insolence and conceit gain him military glory。 Innumerable so…called chance circumstances attend him everywhere。 The disfavour into which he falls with the French Directorate turns to his advantage。 His efforts to avoid the path ordained for him are unsuccessful； he is not received into the Russia army； and his projects in Turkey come to nothing。
During the wars in Italy he was several times on the verge of destruction； and was every time saved in an unexpected fashion。 The Russian troops—the very troops which were able to demolish his glory—owing to various diplomatic considerations； do not enter Europe until he is there。
On his return from Italy； he finds the government in Paris in that process of dissolution in which all men who are in the government are inevitably effaced and nullified。 And an escape for him from that perilous position offers itself in the shape of an aimless； groundless expedition to Africa。 Again the same so…called chance circumstances accompany