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e is no magic indicator； they all have advantages and disadvantages。 It is important to be aware of both because then we can bine several indicators into a system to take advantage of their strengths； while their disadvantages cancel each other out。
我们即将谈论的工具有——均线，包络线，MACD，MACD柱，和力量指数——这是下一章交易系统的基石。没有神奇的指标，它们都有优势和劣势。我们需要了解它们的优势和劣势，这样才能把几个指标融入一个系统，利用它们的优势，抵消它们的劣势。
Choice of Tools
可选的工具
Markets can confound traders。 They often run in two directions at once … up on the weekly charts and down on the dailies。 A market can reverse without sending you an e…mail about its change of plans。 A sleepy stock can get so hot that it burns through stops； while a formerly hot stock bees so cold it freezes your capital along with your fingers。
市场会挫败交易者。它们会突然进入某个方向——周线图上涨，日线图则下跌。市场在反转前不会给你电子邮件告诉你它的计划变了。一只沉睡的股票可能会飙涨，然而一个热门的股票会变冷，甚至能冻住你的资金和手指头。
Trading is a plex； nontrivial game。 Markets consist of huge crowds of people； and technical analysis is applied social psychology。 We must select several tools to identify different aspects of market behavior。 Before using any indicator； we must understand how it is constructed and what it measures。 We must test it on historical data and learn how it performs under different conditions。 Once you start testing an indicator； expect to adjust its settings； turning it into a personal trading tool as reliable and familiar as an old wrench。
交易是复杂的，不平凡的游戏。市场充满了大量的人，技术分析应用了社会心理。我们必须选择几个工具来确认市场行为的不同方面。在用指标之前，我们必须明白它的原理和计算方法。我们必须用历史数据来测试它，并研究它在不同情况下的表现。一旦你开始测试指标，要调整好参数，把它变成适合你的交易工具，要想老板手一样可靠。
Toolboxes vs。 Black Boxes I keep seeing ads in traders’ magazines that show puters with 100 bills ing out of their disk drives。 I’d love to get a hold of one of those models。 The only ones I could find have the direction of money reversed。 puters can chew up cash； but pulling it out of them takes a lot of hard work。 Those ads sell black boxes … puterized trading systems。 Some clown has programmed a bunch of trading rules； put them on a copy…protected diskette or a CD； and now sells you a tool with a great track record。 Feed it market data； and it will spit out an answer … when to buy or sell！ If you believe this magic； wait until you meet Santa Claus。
工具箱和黑箱 我总是在《交易者》杂志上看见广告显示100元的钞票从电脑里面出来。我真喜欢这样的产品。我得到结果是亏钱。电脑会吃钱，想把钱拿出来就难了。那些广告在推销黑箱——电脑交易系统。一些小丑利用交易原则编程，把他们放在磁盘或光盘上，还加密了，然后拿出来卖。你用市场数据测试，它会吐出答案——何时买卖！如果你真的相信它的魔力，你可以等圣诞老人给你。
A fantastic track record of a canned system is meaningless because it es from fitting the rules to old data。 Any puter can tell you which rules worked in the past。 Black…box programs self…destruct as soon as the markets change； even if they include self…optimization。 Black boxes appeal to beginners who derive a false sense of security from them。
出色的交易记录加上保密的交易系统，其实是没有任何含义的，因为那是用过去的数据测试的。任何电脑都能告诉你过去任何指标都有用。即使它们使用了自我优化功能，保密的软件会在市场发生变化时会发生自毁。黑箱能吸引新手，新手从黑箱得到了虚假的安全。
A good software package is a toolbox … a collection of tools for analyzing markets and making your own decisions。 A toolbox can download data； draw charts； and plot indicators； as well as any trading signals you care to program。 It provides charting and analytic tools but leaves you to make your own trading decisions。
好的软件包是一个工具箱——一些工具，让你分析市场，并自己做决定。工具箱可以下载数据，画图，设置指标和你喜欢的信号。它提供了画图和分析工具，但是你自己做交易决定。
The heart of any toolbox is its collection of indicators … tools for identifying trends and reversals behind the noise of raw data。 Good toolboxes allow you to modify indicators and even design your own。 Indicators are objective； you may argue about the trend； but when an indicator is up； it’s up； and when it is down； it’s down。 Keep in mind that indicators are derived from prices。 The more plicated they are； the farther they are from prices and the farther away from reality。 Prices are primary； indicators are secondary； and simple indicators work best。
工具箱的内部是一些指标——确认趋势，反转的指标，它们能去除数据的噪音。好的工具箱能让你修改指标，甚至设计自己的指标。指标是客观的，你可能会和趋势吵架，但是当指标上涨时，就是上涨，当它下跌时，就是下跌。记住，指标来自价格。它们越复杂，它们离开价格和事实就越远。价格是原始的，指标是第2位的，简单的指标最好。
Trend…Following Indicators and Oscillators Learning to use indicators is like learning a foreign language。 You have to immerse yourself in them； make typical beginners’ mistakes； and keep practicing until you rise to the level of proficiency and petence。
趋势跟踪指标和振荡指标 学习使用指标就像是学习外语。你必须融入其中，像新手一样犯错，坚持实践，直到你精通掌握。
Good technical indicators are simple tools that perform well when market conditions change。 They are robust； that is； relatively immune to parameter changes。 If an indicator gives great signals using a 17…day window but bombs when you try a 15…day window； then it’s probably useless。 Good indicators give useful signals at a broad range of settings。
好的指标是简单的工具，在市场情况改变时也能表现良好。它们很有力，也就是说，即使参数改变，它们的效果也不错。如果一个指标，用17天做参数，信号很好，用15天做参数，信号就不行，那么这个指标是没用的。好的指标在不同参数下都能提供有用的信号。
We can divide all technical indicators into three major groups： trend…following； oscillators； and miscellaneous。 Whenever we use an indicator； we must know to which group it belongs。 Each group has its advantages and disadvantages。
我们可以把所有的指标分成3组：趋势跟踪指标，振荡指标，和综合指标。无论何时我们使用指标，我们必须知道它属于哪一组。每一组都有它的优势和劣势。
Trend…following indicators include moving averages； MACD （moving average convergence…divergence）； Directional System； and others。 Big trends mean big money； and these indicators help us stay long in uptrends and short in downtrends。 They have built…in inertia that allows them to lock onto a trend and ride it。 That same inertia causes them to lag at turning points。 Their advantages and disadvantages are the flip sides of each other； and you cannot have one without the other。
趋势跟踪指标包括均线，MACD（指数平滑异同移动平均线），方向系统，等等。大趋势意味着很多钱，这些指标能帮助我们在上涨时做多，在下跌时做空。它们有内在惯性，这样可以跟踪并锁定趋势。这些惯性同样会导致它们在下跌时滞后。它们的优势和劣势是对应的，你不能只用一个，放弃另一个。
Oscillators include Force Index； Rate of Change； and Stochastic； among others。 They help catch turning points by showing when markets are overbought （too high and ready to fall） or oversold （too low and ready to rise）。 Oscillators work great in trading ranges； where they catch upturns and downturns。 Taking their signals when prices are relativel